Il Centro di ricerca congiunturale del Politecnico federale di Zurigo (KOF) ha rivisto al rialzo le sue previsioni sull’evoluzione del PIL svizzero: rispetto all’1,7% pronosticato tre mesi fa, gli esperti prevedono ora una crescita dell’1,9% per il 2015. Nel 2016 dovrebbe essere del 2,1%.
A sostenere l’economia elvetica sono in particolare il miglioramento della congiuntura globale e i consumi privati. Anche le esportazioni approfitteranno della ripresa mondiale nei prossimi mesi.
Oltre alla caduta dei prezzi del petrolio, i consumatori beneficeranno anche dell’evoluzione dell’inflazione, per la quale è atteso un -0,1% per il 2015 (contro un +0,3% inizialmente previsto) e un +0,5% per il 2016.
Più cupe le prospettive per l’edilizia: gli investimenti nel settore dovrebbero diminuire il prossimo anno e questa flessione avrà ripercussioni sul mercato del lavoro.
Paragone con BNS e SECO
A titolo di paragone, la Banca nazionale svizzera (BNS) prevede un aumento del PIL compreso tra l'1,5% e il 2% nel 2014 e del 2% nel 2015. Dal canto suo, la Segreteria di Stato dell'economia (SECO) si aspetta una crescita rispettivamente dell'1,8% e del 2,4%.
RedMM/ats/mrj
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