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Le vittime del caldo, per l'aumento delle temperature, sono destinate quasi a triplicarsi (+257%) entro il 2050, secondo le proiezioni fatte in un lavoro pubblicato sul
“Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health”. Basati su dati inglesi, i calcoli sono stati effettuati dal gruppo di Shakoor Hajat della London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. Le vittime preferite del caldo restano gli anziani, in particolare gli over-75.
I ricercatori hanno fondato i propri calcoli sulla base delle stime delle temperature medie giornaliere per i periodi 2000-09, 2020-29, 2050-59 e 2080-89, stime derivate dal British Atmospheric Data Centre (BADC); poi hanno incrociato questi dati sul clima con quelli sulla crescita della popolazione forniti dall'Ufficio nazionale di statistica.
Secondo i ricercatori il problema del caldo in eccesso si autoalimenta a causa dell'abitudine di combatterlo con l'uso eccessivo di aria condizionata, che però comporta un notevole dispendio di energia e quindi produce altro inquinamento che si traduce in ulteriore aumento delle temperature. Bisogna piuttosto, scrivono i ricercatori, pensare a sistemi di isolamento termico e a costruire edifici con materiali intelligenti che tengano fuori il caldo dalle mura domestiche.
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