La crescita della Cina, secondo le previsioni, si avvia verso un rallentamento. Il FMI stima un PIL in aumento al 6,2% nel 2019 e al 6,0% sia nel 2020 sia nel 2021. Nel 2022 la crescita scenderà sotto il 6,0%, con il PIL a +5,7%, e poi rallenterà gradualmente fino al +5,5% nel 2024.
Rischi al ribasso legati alle tensioni commerciali con gli Stati Uniti pesano sull'economia della Cina, afferma il Fondo monetario internazionale, sottolineando che in caso di escalation delle tensioni la Cina potrebbe avere bisogno di ulteriori stimoli per l'economia. Se gli Stati Uniti alzassero al 25% i dazi sul restante import cinese finora non colpito, la crescita cinese potrebbe diminuire dello 0,8% l'anno successivo con una riduzione della domanda e più stringenti condizioni finanziarie, spiega il Fondo. Questo potrebbe avere "significative" ricadute "negative" sull'economia globale.
Il valore dello yuan è in linea con i fondamentali economici della Cina, afferma ancora l’istituto internazionale, secondo il quale Pechino dovrebbe mantenere il tasso di cambio della sua valuta flessibile.
ATS/ANSA/Swing
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