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Hillary Clinton ha l'85% delle possibilità di vincere il voto popolare e il 75% di vincere sul fronte dei grandi elettori. E a Donald Trump rimane solo il 10% di chance di conquistare la Casa Bianca. Niente a che vedere con il 56,7% registrato dopo la kermesse dalla convention repubblicana di Cleveland, a fine luglio.
La previsione, a una settimana dal voto, è di Nate Silver, il guru dei pronostici elettorali, colui che nel 2008 e nel 2012 predisse la vittoria di Barack Obama azzeccando i risultati il primo anno di 49 Stati su 50 e il secondo di 50 su 50.
Insomma, il calcolo statistico dell'ex opinionista del New York Times e del Wall Street Journal si è finora dimostrato praticamente infallibile. Sul suo blog FiveThirtyEight (538 è il numero dei grandi elettori che eleggono il presidente degli Stati Uniti) Silver sottolinea come Clinton, nonostante la rimonta degli ultimi giorni di Trump, sul fronte del voto popolare stia facendo meglio di Obama.
A spingere Clinton sul fronte del voto popolare è soprattutto una "forte performance" nei "red state" (quelli tradizionalmente di fede repubblicana) e tra gli ispanici.
ats/joe.p.
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