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La popolazione mondiale potrebbe crescere entro il 2050 dagli attuali 7,1 a 9,7 miliardi. Lo afferma uno studio dell’Institut National Etudes Dèmografiques (INED) francese.
Solo in Asia il numero di abitanti dovrebbe salire da 4,3 a 5,2 miliardi. In Cina, grazie alla pianificazione delle nascite, non ci saranno grandi variazioni: fra 35 anni non saranno superati 1,3 miliardi.
L’India diventerà verosimilmente la nazione più popolata. L’Africa sarà invece il continente con la crescita maggiore: il numero di abitanti passerà da 1,1 a 2,5 miliardi.
Nel 1999 era stata superata quota 6 miliardi e per aggiungere un miliardo ci sono voluti 12 anni.
Il tasso di fecondità è dimezzato dal 1950: ogni donna mette al mondo mediamente 2,5 bambini contro i 5 della metà del secolo scorso. I due estremi sono il Niger (7,6 neonati) e la Bosnia Erzegovina (1,2 bambini).
Il declino europeo
L’Europa, con un indice di 1,6, è il solo continente che vedrà diminuita la sua popolazione. Dai 740 milioni di persone si scenderà a 726, secondo l’INED. Le due Americhe raggiungeranno 1,2 miliardi, l’Oceania passerà da 38 a 58 milioni. Nel 2050 il paese più popolato sarà l’India con 1,65 miliardi, seguita dalla Cina (1,3) e Stati Uniti (316 milioni).
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