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Dopo 9 mesi di campagna elettorale, il Messico va alle urne. Eleggerà i nuovi 500 membri del Parlamento, 15 governatori e migliaia di cariche locali. Il presidente Lopez Obrador e’ a metà mandato e il risultato delle elezioni è fondamentale per la sua agenda politica.
Le riforme più radicali, come quella energetica per cui cerca il monopolio statale, hanno bisogno di una modifica costituzionale per passare. Ci può riuscire raggiungendo i due terzi dei posti in Parlamento, insieme ai suoi alleati. Perdere la maggioranza potrebbe al contrario portare allo stallo politico o a una maggiore radicalizzazione delle sue posizioni, in un Paese già estremamente polarizzato.
I sondaggi gli danno uno straordinario 60% del favore degli elettori, nonostante 3 anni di mandato con pochi successi alle spalle.
Violenza e crimine sono peggiorati. La sua politica “abbracci non pallottole”, che avrebbe dovuto combattere il crimine attraverso programmi economici e sociali, è stata un fallimento. La gestione della pandemia ha fatto del Messico il terzo Paese al mondo per decessi, lo stesso Lopez Obrador ha sempre rifiutato di dare l'esempio, anche solo nel portare la maschera. Il Paese è entrato in recessione ancora prima della crisi portata dal Covid-19.
La sua campagna anticorruzione si è tradotta nell’accentramento di potere nella sua persona, eliminando interi ministeri, facendo tagli alle amministrazioni pubbliche e a organizzazioni non governative. I suoi attacchi alla stampa hanno contribuito a polarizzare l'opinione pubblica e rendere più vulnerabile questa professione in un Paese che l'anno scorso ha registrato il maggior numero di omicidi di giornalisti al mondo.
Abile nell'uso della sua immagine e comunicazione, il successo più visibile è la sua vicinanza all’elettorato, soprattutto quello più povero ed emarginato. Un forte contrasto con i partiti all'opposizione che hanno fatto di tutto per attaccare il Presidente, meno avvicinarsi agli elettori.
Laura Daverio
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