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L’esito dell’iniziativa contro l’immigrazione di massa ha da subito sollevato punti interrogativi riguardo all’impatto che avrà sull’economia del paese. Per rispondere al quesito, l’istituto di ricerca Bakbasel ha creato tre scenari misurandone la possibile evoluzione nel breve e medio periodo, ovvero fino al 2020.
La prima supposizione è incentrata su un aumento dell'insicurezza, la seconda su una diminuzione dell'immigrazione e dell'offerta di lavoro, la terza su un calo dell'offerta di lavoro in concomitanza con un accesso limitato al mercato dell'UE.
Il risultato dello studio mostra che il prodotto interno lordo potrebbe risentire dell’insicurezza e del rallentamento negli investimenti perdendo fino a 0,6 punti in termine di crescita. Il freno all’immigrazione, con conseguente riduzione della crescita demografica, potrebbe invece far lievitare il PIL pro capite dello 0.3%.
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